The forthcoming year is set to be a pivotal moment for the advancement of language models, education, and the cryptocurrency sector. Augmented Reality (AR) technologies will make their way into classrooms, and companies will start vying for data.
The UK-based consulting firm, GP Bullhound, has unveiled its annual report featuring technology predictions. Analysts are of the view that the influence of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on technology is irrefutable, and 2024 will be characterized by a data scramble, the commercialization of large language models, and chip shortages. RBC Trends has spotlighted the key takeaways from the GP Bullhound report.
Large Language Models Will Shrink in Size
Analysts point out that the most potent AI models today are commercial and leverage proprietary data, spurring the open-source community to develop smaller counterparts that will be equally effective. In 2023, Meta, despite being recognized as extremist in Russia and having its activities banned, has already launched a comprehensive set of open LLaMA models. These models are 30 times less expensive to operate than OpenAI’s competitors but deliver comparable performance. Simultaneously, small yet efficient startup models are emerging. For instance, Mistral, with its 7 billion parameters, outperforms its Meta counterpart with 13 billion parameters. Another example is the Replit model, which, with only 3 billion parameters and a focus on programming, surpasses its larger counterparts in terms of work efficiency.
To counter the escalating competition, OpenAI has consistently reduced the prices of its models. Consequently, the latest version of the GPT-3 API was 97.5% cheaper than when the first version was launched in 2020. However, with the anticipated release of GPT-5, the company might support a new trend, and the model will be smaller than its predecessor.
AI in 2024 will See Unstructured Data Buying Surge
The evolution of generative AI has encouraged companies to increasingly utilize old, redundant data for training, sometimes accounting for up to 90% of the total volume. If previously only IT giants recognized the value of unstructured data, now relatively small companies are also turning to it. In 2023, climate platform Watershed acquired ecodata company VitalMetrics, and mining company Veracio purchased geoscience data platform Minalyze. Analysts forecast that in 2024 the market will witness a surge in companies being bought solely for their datasets.
The Private Sector Will Spearhead the Space Race
Analysts predict that the number of satellites in Earth’s orbit will surge from 8,000 to over 100,000 in the next decade, with private sector companies leading the new space race. Their primary objective will be to expand and enhance the communications infrastructure on Earth. For instance, Open Cosmos is already developing platforms for satellite data exchange between organizations, and Leaf Space is constructing ground stations that enable operators to control flights and operate spacecraft. Analysts separately highlight the impending launch of SpaceX’s Starship rocket, which will not only facilitate the simultaneous launch of more satellites into orbit but also dispatch telescopes with larger mirrors into space.
Content Creators Will Challenge Generative AI
According to analysts, content creators will start emphasizing authentic materials and brand identity and protect them from being used in training neural networks. They will begin to actively use filters from AI bots, AI content tagging, and other tools. At the same time, users will be willing to pay for copyrighted content, and its market, as per Goldman Sachs’ estimates, will reach $480 billion by 2027, doubling the volume of 2023. In addition to subscriptions, there will be creator-focused marketplaces where fans can buy shares of the intellectual property of works.
AI in 2024 Speculation: AR and VR Will Draw Investment in Immersive Education
In 2024, AR and VR technologies will dominate the training of medical personnel and people in other high-risk professions. For example, Labster’s virtual lab allows chemistry students to safely conduct more than 250 virtual simulations and experiments. Combining such technologies with AI capabilities will generate learning situations and challenges, which will push companies to scale up immersive technology adoption and investment. School education will also change: virtual excursions and other technologies will become available to students. As a result, the EdTech market will grow from the current $12.6 billion to $1.1 trillion in 2030.
Apple’s Ad-Free Search Engine
Analysts predict that Apple will launch its ad-free search engine as early as 2024 to compete with Google, which currently pays the company $20 billion annually to be the default search engine on iOS devices. Apple’s own search engine will be integrated with ecosystem services such as iCloud, Apple Music, Apple Fitness, and Apple TV. This move will cater to users’ privacy demands and also enable the company to use the collected data for product development.
AML and KYC Technologies in the Spotlight
Anti-money laundering and payment protection will continue to gain momentum in 2024 as the number of compliance platforms increases. AML and KYC technologies, which are used for user identification and information storage and exchange, will help combat illegal activities, accounting for about 20% of the volume of payments passing through decentralized finance platforms. In 2022, the volume of money laundering through these platforms increased by 1964%, amounting to about $900 million. The USA, EU, Singapore, and Switzerland are already introducing laws requiring crypto platforms to implement strict AML and KYC procedures. The global market for anti-money laundering solutions is expected to reach $6 billion in 2023. The ensuing legislation will also ensure global compatibility of cross-border transactions and wider adoption of cryptocurrencies.
AI Will Change Media Through Content Personalization
According to analysts, in 2024, generative AI will completely change content and the way users consume it. Media will begin to invest in AI content personalization through the purchase of companies that develop such systems. In the United States alone, funding in this area reached $23 billion in 2023.
Competition in the AI Market Will Increase Demand for Processors
Due to the growing demand for computing power for AI needs, large chip manufacturers will focus on specialized processors, as well as developing solutions for complex computing on the device rather than in the cloud. Another emerging area of development will be high-bandwidth memory (HBM). The industry will also face chip shortages due to supply chain issues, analysts say. Cloud service providers will invest in GPUs to avoid losing the race. NVIDIA will be able to maintain its leadership in 2024, but at the same time, more new chip projects will appear.
AI in 2024: Business Will Accelerate Preparation for New ESG Rules
Analysts predict that in 2024, systems for automated accounting of carbon dioxide emissions will begin to be actively implemented, along with new regulatory rules. However, in 2023, enterprises measured only 10% of such emissions. All these developments will push businesses to more actively implement new tools. Thus, in one survey, 87% of companies expressed a desire to expand their ESG reporting. 2024 will be a turning point for developers of automated CO₂ emissions accounting software. Such solutions are already offered by Greenely, Watershed, Persefoni, Sweep, Plan A, Greenly, Normative, and other companies.